Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;660409
AXNT20 KNHC 030543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force S or
SW winds, veering to W or SW in Madeira through 04/00 UTC, the
Northern Canary Islands from 03/06 UTC through at least 03/15 UTC,
and SW in Agadir from 03/12 UTC through 03/21 UTC. Rough to very
rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W and
extends southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N
between 05W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic through
the northern Gulf of America. This pattern is supporting fresh to
strong SE to S winds across much of the Gulf north of 21N, with
moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north
of 22N and west of 88W, and 3 to 7 ft elsewhere. No significant
convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds and rough seas of
8 to 12 ft are expected across the central and western Gulf of
America west of 87W through Sat, as a strong pressure gradient
prevails between high pressure over the central Atlantic and
complex low pressure systems in the central United States. Winds
may pulse to near-gale force in this region each late night
through the morning hours into Sat. East of 87W including through
the Florida Straits, moderate to fresh SE winds are expected
through Sat, with pulsing strong winds possible through the
Florida Straits. Looking ahead, a cold front associated with the
complex storm systems in the central United States will enter the
northwestern Gulf Sat night, leading to fresh to strong N winds
and rough seas in the wake of the front Sun into early next week.
Winds may approach gale force offshore of Veracruz Sun morning.
Looking ahead, the cold front will slowly progress through the
basin early next week, and winds and seas will slowly diminish
behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean, with similar winds near
the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly moderate to fresh
elsewhere. Seas are moderate across much of the basin, aside from
seas of 8-9 ft offshore NW Colombia.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force E to NE winds will
pulse offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each
night and morning into this weekend. Very rough seas peaking near
13 ft will occur near and to the west of the strongest winds in
the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force
SE winds will likely pulse each evening into the early morning
hours in the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Rough seas
will occur in association with these winds. Otherwise, a strong
pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic
and the Colombian low will support widespread fresh to strong
trade winds across the rest of the basin through Sat, including
through the Mona and Windward Passages. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft
will prevail over the southwestern, central and eastern basin,
including across the tropical Atlantic waters into the Caribbean
passages, during this time. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient
will relax for Sun into early next week, supporting moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across much of the Caribbean, with
pulsing strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning in
effect for the Meteo-France area.

The Atlantic basin is dominated by 1036 high pressure centered
near 41N67W, with the subtropical ridge axis extending southward
into the subtropical and tropical Atlantic. A complex low
pressure system between the Canary Islands and the Azores is
supporting fresh to near gale-force winds north of 27N between
18W and 37W. Associated large seas of 8-12 ft cover the waters
north of 23N between the W coast of Africa and 37W, with seas of
12-16 ft occurring N of 28N between 16W and 35W. Fresh to strong
E to NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft prevail across much of the basin
W of 30W and S of 25N. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will
occur south of 25N, including through the Florida Straits, through
Sat morning as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high
pressure in the central Atlantic and the Colombian low. Very rough
seas of 8 to 11 ft will accompany these winds. The pressure
gradient will relax for the second half of the weekend into next
week as a low pressure system moves through the central Atlantic,
weakening the ridge. As a result, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds and locally rough seas are expected across this region into
early next week. A long-period N swell associated with the central
Atlantic low pressure system will push into the northeastern
waters, north of 20N and east of 65W, by early next week, leading
to rough seas. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S winds are
slated to develop off the coast of central and northern Florida on
Sun ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United
States. The cold front is forecast to move off the coast early
next week, and winds will turn to the W and NW behind the front.

$$
Adams

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