Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;414724
AXNT20 KNHC 211010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A 1028 mb high pressure center is currently over extreme NE Mexico
and is building southward and southeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico, behind a cold front this has nearly exited the basin. The
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure along the
cold front and across southeast Mexico is supporting fresh to
strong northerly winds and very rough seas across most of the
Gulf. Offshore of Veracruz, winds are peaking at strong to minimal
gale-force, while seas have built to 9-12 ft. Winds offshore of
Veracruz will diminish below gale-force in the next few hours as
the cold front moves farther into the NW Caribbean and across
central Cuba. Basin-wide, winds and seas will gradually subside
from west to east late this morning through Fri. Please refer to
the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Most of the monsoon trough remains over the African Continent. An
ITCZ stretches westward from just offshore of northern Sierra
Leone to 07N34W, then turns northwestward to 11.5N45W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N
between the W coast of Africa and 33W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between 35W and 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters
of Panama and Colombia south of 12.5N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning
near Veracruz.

A cold front has nearly cleared the basin overnight, and extends
from the Upper Florida Keys across far western Cuba and into the
NW Caribbean. Most of the significant convection occurring earlier
tonight along and ahead of the front has shifted SE of the basin
in recent hours. However, scattered light to moderate convection
continues across much of the SW Gulf. North winds behind the front
have diminished to moderate to fresh across NW portions to the
west of 94W, while fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail over the
rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Buoy observations
across the basin indicate that seas have subsided to 4-6 ft across
NW portions, but are generally 7-10 ft in northerly swell
elsewhere across the Gulf, to the south of the northern coastal
waters.

For the forecast, the cold front sweeping across the basin will
shift SE and exit the Gulf and Straits of Florida by sunrise.
Minimal NW gale winds offshore Veracruz will also diminish below
gale- force by sunrise. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas
are expected elsewhere behind the front. High pressure building
in the wake of the front will begin to weaken today, with marine
conditions gradually improving from W to E through the end of the
week. The high pressure will shift to the NE Gulf early Sun when
gentle to moderate SE to S winds are expected over the eastern
Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S return flow develops
over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southeasterly winds to the south of the cold front
over the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean are initiating
scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front from the
Gulf of Honduras to west central Cuba. A modest surface trough is
generating patchy showers between Jamaica and Haiti. Fresh NW
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present behind the cold front,
across the waters of to the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel, and
extend to the coastal waters of Belize. Light to gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas are noted north of Costa Rica and Panama.
Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving
southeastward and reach from central Cuba along 80W to the Gulf
of Honduras by around sunrise, reach from eastern Cuba to near
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning, and from the
Windward Passage to near the Costa Rica- Panama border Sat
morning, where the front should stall and gradually dissipate.
Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front
through Sat before winds begin to veer NE to E through Sun and
diminish slightly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N44W to 26N57W, then continues as a stationary front to
27.5N68W. Patchy showers are found up to 90 nm along either side
of this boundary. To the southeast, a surface trough runs
northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to 27N47W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to
100 nm along either side of this feature. Farther east, convergent
southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection north
of 24N between 38W and 42W. Across the Tropical Atlantic, another
surface trough is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection
from 06N to 15N between 35W and 50W. An upper-level low near
31N21W continues to trigger isolated thunderstorms near the Canary
Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The northern portion of the cold front moving across the Gulf of
Mexico has moved offshore of Florida and the SE U.S. overnight,
and extends from 31N77W to central Florida near Ft Pierce.
Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident north
of 28N between 68W and the front. Behind the front NW to W winds
of 20 to 30 kt are spilling offshore of the SE U.S. coast and
north Florida and over the offshore waters, where seas have built
to 6-8 ft. Farther east near the cold/stationary front mentioned
earlier, moderate SW to W winds and 6 to 11 ft seas in large NW
swell dominate north of 26N between 35W and 75W. To the south, a
1016 mb high is centered near 24N69W, and extends an E to W ridge
between the surface trough crossing 50W and the Bahamas. Gentle
anticyclonic winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly
swell prevail over these waters. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front has stalled across
the NE offshore zones, along about 26N-27N, and will meander
through Fri. The new cold front across the NW zones off of
Florida is expected to reach from 31N74W to central Cuba this
morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from
31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. Then, the
front will stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate
through the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building
seas on either side of the front N of 26N through Sat.

$$
Stripling

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