Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;257316
AXNT20 KNHC 180940
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 00N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 00N26W to 01N39W and to near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 30W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weakening low pressure of 1015 is over the southeastern Gulf
waters near 26N83W. A small stationary front segment extends
northeast from the low to southwest Florida, and a trailing trough
extends southwestward from the low to inland the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is occurring with
this system. Isolated showers are possible over the northern Gulf
waters as well as along the coastal plains sections. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are found in the western and
northern Gulf waters, especially west of a line from Panama City,
Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Seas over these waters are 4-6 ft.
Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicated fresh to locally
strong SE winds in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh southwest winds over the northern and
western Gulf will continue today ahead of deepening low pressure
in the south-central United States. A rather sharp cold front
associated with the aforementioned low will enter the NW Gulf late
this morning, followed initially by fresh northwest to north
winds. These winds are forecast to increase to strong speeds by
early Sun as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and
building strong high pressure over the central U.S. Near gale to
gale-force winds will be possible Sun and Sun night in the
southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and offshore Veracruz. Rough
seas are expected to accompany the winds. Looking ahead, low
pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf early next week,
with an attendant potent cold front. The low will track eastward
through mid-week dragging the cold front across the entire basin.
Near gale to gale-force north to northeast winds are expected to
move into most of the northern and western Gulf early next week.
Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Mariners
are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside
of the gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of
strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with
successive frontal systems.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pockets of low-level moisture moving across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea result in a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with the strongest convection occurring near the
San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coasts of SE Nicaragua
and NE Costa Rica. A 1024 mb high center is analyzed over the
western Atlantic at 28N69W. The gradient between it and relatively
lower pressure present to its south is allowing for fresh to
strong trades northeast to east trades to exist over much of the
central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage as
depicted in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas in these
waters are around 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft
from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W and also north 15N between
68W and 72W. The winds of strong speeds and highest of the seas
are present off NW Colombia. Across the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain.

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds will prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern
Caribbean through this weekend, with locally strong winds
developing each night offshore of Colombia, through the Atlantic
Passages and downwind of Hispaniola. Locally rough seas are
expected near strong winds. Long-period east swell will promote
rough seas through the Atlantic Passages tonight through the
middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast
winds will develop Sat night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead
of a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong east winds and building seas will
occur over much of the basin early next week ahead of the
aforementioned cold front approaching the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda dominates
the SW North Atlantic Its related gradient is inducing moderate
to fresh easterly winds south of 23N and between 55W and 70W and
similar strength but SE winds west of 70W, especially in the
Bahamian and off NE Florida waters. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes noted fresh to strong
westerly winds north of 29N and between 45W and 63W. Seas in the
waters described are 8 to 12 ft. A cold front is analyzed from
near 31N35W southwestward to 24N48W, where it transitions to a
shear line that reaches the Leeward Islands. Moderate southwest
winds along with seas of 8 to 10 ft are north of 27N and between
31W and 40W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
high pressure, with a 1026 mb high center located near the
Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and comparatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is
supporting fresh to locally strong trades south of about 22N. Seas
in the area described are 6 to 9 ft due to long-period northwest
to north swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are present.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northwest winds
associated with a cold front that extends from the central
Atlantic to the NE part of the area will shift to E of 55W early
this afternoon. The rough seas produced by these winds will lag
behind before also shifting E of 55W tonight. Moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere will prevail through the period, with winds
pulsing to strong speeds east of the Windward Islands at times.
Fresh to locally strong south winds and rough seas are off the
Florida coast N of 25N in advance of a trough that is offshore the
southeastern U.S. coast. Low pressure is expected to form along
the trough today and track NE well N of the forecast waters. A
cold front will move into the northwestern waters on Sun inducing
fresh to strong southwest to northwest winds and rough seas north
of 27N. Looking ahead, a potent cold front is expected to move off
the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, followed by strong
to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of Cuba and
west of 70W.

$$
Aguirre

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