Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;348375
AXNT20 KNHC 221646
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Feb 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force off
the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will build to 12 ft with
these winds. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are
expected during the daytime hours.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to the equator at 22W. The
ITCZ continues from the equator at 22W to the equator at 50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05S to 03N between 15W and
30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

At 1500 UTC, 1023 mb low pressure is centered near 26N96W in the
NW Gulf of America. A warm front extends from the low pressure
eastward to 26N90W. A cold front extends from the low pressure
south to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds prevail
across the Gulf west of 90W, with locally near gale force winds
possible near the low pressure center. Seas are 5-7 ft west of
90W, with 7-10 ft seas analyzed in most of the W Gulf from 18N to
26N west of 94W. Offshore Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, seas may locally
peak to 10-13 ft. Elsewhere, east of 90W, mainly moderate NE to E
winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas. In the Straits of Florida, trades
are fresh to locally strong in the wake of a surface trough, with
5-8 ft seas. The aforementioned surface trough is along 85W from
the western tip of Cuba north to 27N.

For the forecast, the low will track NE through early Sun night,
then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on Mon with the cold
front trailing from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to
strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate
to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high
pressure will settle over the central waters Tue through Wed night
in its wake with tranquil marine conditions across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
refer to the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside of the gale warning, the latest scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean,
including near the southern tip of Hispaniola and within the
Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft, increasing to 7-10 ft in the
GALE WARNING area. Fresh NE winds prevail in the lee of Cuba,
building seas in the NW Caribbean to 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades prevail in the E Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through
early Sun. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the western
Caribbean will diminish by early next week as a cold front slips
SE of the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach from western Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras late Mon night with fresh to strong winds
behind it, then stalling and dissipating from eastern Cuba to
eastern Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to near gale-force winds
offshore northern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight.
Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean through early next week, and in the
Tropical N Atlantic where moderate to locally rough seas will
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N48W southwestward to the
southern Bahamas, then the eastern tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds, and seas 8 ft or greater follow the front north to
31N and west to 75W, including near the Bahamas. Gentle trades
are ahead of the frontal boundary. Seas in excess of 12 ft are
north of 28N between 50W and 61W. The remainder of the tropical
and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by 1029 mb high pressure
centered near Madeira. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in waters
east of 50W, with 8-11 ft seas in long period (12-14 sec) NW
swell. All other areas have moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
manage to slip a bit more southward today, before stalling and
dissipating from 25N55W to N of Hispaniola Sun. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh to strong NE
winds S of 25N and W of the front, including the Straits of
Florida through tonight. Rough to very rough seas behind the front
will subside across the waters W of 55W by late Sun night. Broad
low pressure from the Gulf of America will approach South Florida
Mon, and track NE to N 31N by late Tue night dragging a trailing
cold front across the western part of the area. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front and low. By late
Wed night, marine conditions may improve under a broad and weak
pressure pattern.

$$
Mahoney

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